When Models Interact with their Subjects: The Dynamics of Model Aware Systems

A scientific model need not be a passive and static descriptor of its subject. If the subject is affected by the model, the model must be updated to explain its affected subject. In this study, two models regarding the dynamics of model aware systems are presented. The first explores the behavior of "prediction seeking" (PSP) and "prediction avoiding" (PAP) populations under the influence of a model that describes them. The second explores the publishing behavior of a group of experimentalists coupled to a model by means of confirmation bias. It is found that model aware systems can exhibit convergent random or oscillatory behavior and display universal 1/f noise. A numerical simulation of the physical experimentalists is compared with actual publications of neutron life time and {\Lambda} mass measurements and is in good quantitative agreement.Comment: Accepted for publication in PLoS-ON

GRACE storage-runoff hystereses reveal the dynamics of regional watersheds

We characterize how regional watersheds function as simple, dynamic systems through a series of hysteresis loops using measurements from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites. These loops illustrate the temporal relationship between runoff and terrestrial water storage in three regional-scale watersheds (> 150 000 km²) of the Columbia River Basin, USA and Canada. The shape and size of the hysteresis loops are controlled by the climate, topography, and geology of the watershed. The direction of the hystereses for the GRACE signals moves in opposite directions from the isolated groundwater hystereses. The subsurface water (soil moisture and groundwater) hystereses more closely resemble the storage-runoff relationship of a soil matrix. While the physical processes underlying these hystereses are inherently complex, the vertical integration of terrestrial water in the GRACE signal encapsulates the processes that govern the non-linear function of regional-scale watersheds. We use this process-based understanding to test how GRACE data can be applied prognostically to predict seasonal runoff (mean Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.91) and monthly runoff during the low flow/high demand month of August (mean Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.77) in all three watersheds. The global nature of GRACE data allows this same methodology to be applied in other regional-scale studies, and could be particularly useful in regions with minimal data and in trans-boundary watersheds.For a previous discussion paper please see: http://hdl.handle.net/1957/57160. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by the author(s) and published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. The published article can be found at: http://www.hydrology-and-earth-system-sciences.net/. The Supplement related to this article is available onlineat doi:10.5194/hess-19-3253-2015-supplement

GRACE storage-streamflow hystereses reveal the dynamics of regional watersheds

We characterize how regional watersheds function as simple, dynamic systems through a series of hysteresis loops. These loops illustrate the temporal relationship between runoff and terrestrial water storage using measurements from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites in three regional-scale watersheds (>150 000 km² ) of the Columbia River Basin, USA and Canada. The direction of the hystereses for the GRACE signal move in opposite directions from the isolated groundwater hystereses, suggesting that regional scale watersheds require soil water storage to reach a certain threshold before groundwater recharge and peak runoff occur. While the physical processes underlying these hystereses are inherently complex, the vertical integration of terrestrial water in the GRACE signal encapsulates the processes that govern the non-linear function of regional-scale watersheds. We use this process-based understanding to test how GRACE data can be applied prognostically to predict seasonal runoff (mean R² of 0.91) and monthly runoff (mean R² of 0.77) in all three watersheds. The global nature of GRACE data allows this same methodology to be applied in other regional-scale studies, and could be particularly useful in regions with minimal data and in trans-boundary watersheds.This discussion paper has been under review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS). Please refer to the corresponding final paper in HESS. The published article is copyrighted by the author(s) and published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. The published article can be found at: http://hdl.handle.net/1957/5716

An Exploratory Study into the Factors Impeding Ethical Consumption

Although consumers are increasingly engaged with ethical factors when forming opinions about products and making purchase decisions, recent studies have highlighted significant differences between consumers’ intentions to consume ethically, and their actual purchase behaviour. This article contributes to an understanding of this “ethical purchasing gap” through a review of existing literature, and the inductive analysis of focus group discussions. A model is suggested which includes exogenous variables such as moral maturity and age which have been well covered in the literature, together with further impeding factors identified from the focus group discussions. For some consumers, inertia in purchasing behaviour was such that the decision-making process was devoid of ethical considerations. Several manifested their ethical views through post-purchase dissonance and retrospective feelings of guilt. Others displayed a reluctance to consume ethically due to personal constraints, a perceived negative impact on image or quality, or an outright negation of responsibility. Those who expressed a desire to consume ethically often seemed deterred by cynicism, which caused them to question the impact they, as an individual, could achieve. These findings enhance the understanding of ethical consumption decisions and provide a platform for future research in this area

Allergen Uptake, Activation, and IL-23 Production by Pulmonary Myeloid DCs Drives Airway Hyperresponsiveness in Asthma-Susceptible Mice

Maladaptive, Th2-polarized inflammatory responses are integral to the pathogenesis of allergic asthma. As regulators of T cell activation, dendritic cells (DCs) are important mediators of allergic asthma, yet the precise signals which render endogenous DCs “pro-asthmatic”, and the extent to which these signals are regulated by the pulmonary environment and host genetics, remains unclear. Comparative phenotypic and functional analysis of pulmonary DC populations in mice susceptible (A/J), or resistant (C3H) to experimental asthma, revealed that susceptibility to airway hyperresponsiveness is associated with preferential myeloid DC (mDC) allergen uptake, and production of Th17-skewing cytokines (IL-6, IL-23), whereas resistance is associated with increased allergen uptake by plasmacytoid DCs. Surprisingly, adoptive transfer of syngeneic HDM-pulsed bone marrow derived mDCs (BMDCs) to the lungs of C3H mice markedly enhanced lung IL-17A production, and rendered them susceptible to allergen-driven airway hyperresponsiveness. Characterization of these BMDCs revealed levels of antigen uptake, and Th17 promoting cytokine production similar to that observed in pulmonary mDCs from susceptible A/J mice. Collectively these data demonstrate that the lung environment present in asthma-resistant mice promotes robust pDC allergen uptake, activation, and limits Th17-skewing cytokine production responsible for driving pathologic T cell responses central to the development of allergen-induced airway hyperresponsiveness

Catalyzing Transformations to Sustainability in the World's Mountains

Mountain social‐ecological systems (MtSES) are vital to humanity, providing ecosystem services to over half the planet's human population. Despite their importance, there has been no global assessment of threats to MtSES, even as they face unprecedented challenges to their sustainability. With survey data from 57 MtSES sites worldwide, we test a conceptual model of the types and scales of stressors and ecosystem services in MtSES and explore their distinct configurations according to their primary economic orientation and land use. We find that MtSES worldwide are experiencing both gradual and abrupt climatic, economic, and governance changes, with policies made by outsiders as the most ubiquitous challenge. Mountains that support primarily subsistence‐oriented livelihoods, especially agropastoral systems, deliver abundant services but are also most at risk. Moreover, transitions from subsistence‐ to market‐oriented economies are often accompanied by increased physical connectedness, reduced diversity of cross‐scale ecosystem services, lowered importance of local knowledge, and shifting vulnerabilities to threats. Addressing the complex challenges facing MtSES and catalyzing transformations to MtSES sustainability will require cross‐scale partnerships among researchers, stakeholders, and decision makers to jointly identify desired futures and adaptation pathways, assess trade‐offs in prioritizing ecosystem services, and share best practices for sustainability. These transdisciplinary approaches will allow local stakeholders, researchers, and practitioners to jointly address MtSES knowledge gaps while simultaneously focusing on critical issues of poverty and food security